New Research Creates Accurate Pricing Model for Wine Futures

Researchers from the Martin J. Whitman School of Management at Syracuse University have revealed a highly accurate model for pricing wine futures. In a recently accepted paper in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, Burak Kazaz, PhD, Steven Becker Professor, Laura J. and L. Douglas Meredith Professor of Teaching Excellence and associate professor of supply chain at the Syracuse University’s Whitman School, and his co-authors, Dr. Tim Noparumpa (Syracuse Ph.D. ’12) and Dr. Scott Webster (Arizona State University, formerly Syracuse University), examined the impact of wine tasting experts and their reviews when it comes to selling wine before it is bottled, known as “wine futures.”

Their research shows how to price wine futures, as well as what proportion of the wine should be sold in advance versus through retail chains. It demonstrates that Bordeaux grand cru wineries increase their profit by approximately 10 percent; they estimate that small and artisanal winemakers in the U.S. can benefit from such financial markets by improving their profits by 14 to 15 percent.

“Our work is significant as it is perceived as the first of its kind in pricing wine futures with accuracy,” said Dr. Kazaz. “Earlier research thoroughly examines the pricing of bottled wine but has not explored a model for pricing wine not yet bottled.”